RECAP: THE GOOD NEWS CONTINUES FOR MOST MARKETS! THE TOTAL NUMBER OF BUILDING PERMITS ISSUED DURING Q2-2010 WAS GREATER THAN IN Q1-2010 AND/OR YTD 2010 TOTALS ARE GREATER THAN YTD 2009 TOTALS. (YTD = Q1+Q2). BUT, THE GENERAL CONSENSUS FROM OUR CUSTOMERS IN ALL MARKETS IS THAT MOST OF THE BUILDING PERMITS BEING ISSUED IN 2010 ARE FOR ENTRY LEVEL OR MOVE UP HOUSING. WHILE WE CERTAINLY THINK THIS IS TRUE, OUR DATA SHOWS THE FOLLOWING:
1) BUILDING PERMITS FOR "HIGH END" HOUSES HAVE BEEN STEADILY DECREASING SINCE THE PEAK IN 2006. FROM 2008 TO 2009 FOR EXAMPLE, THE NUMBER OF PERMITS ISSUED WITH VALUES OVER $300,000 DROPPED OVER 50% IN THE MARKETS WE COVER. FURTHER, FROM 2008 TO 2009, THE AVERAGE SQUARE FOOTAGE DROPPED FROM 2,944 TO 2,480 IN A RANDOM SAMPLE OF PERMITS FROM SC, NC, TN, AND KY.
2) CONVERSELY, THE AVERAGE PERMIT AMOUNT IS NOT FALLING. THIS SEEMS COUNTERINTUITIVE GIVEN THE DECREASE IN HIGH END PERMITS AND THE INCREASE IN LOW END CONDO PERMITS IN 2010. REGARDLESS, WHEN COMPARING YTD 2010 TO YTD 2009, THE AVERAGE PERMIT AMOUNT INCREASED SLIGHTLY IN MOST MARKETS. THE ONLY CONCLUSION I DERIVE FROM THIS IS THAT BUILDING MATERIAL COSTS HAVE SIMPLY INCREASED.
THESE FACTORS COMBINED WITH AN ACTUAL INCREASE IN THE NUMBER OF PERMITS MEANS DEMAND FOR COMMODITY PRODUCTS LIKE BLOCK, LUMBER, READY MIX CONCRETE, ETC SHOULD INCREASE IN THE MONTHS AHEAD. BUT, DEMAND FOR PRODUCTS TYPICALLY ASSOCIATED WITH "HIGH END" CONSTRUCTION LIKE BRICK, EXTERIOR STONE, GRANITE COUNTERTOPS, WILL CONTINUE TO BE WEAK.
2 OTHER ITEMS OF INTEREST (PERTAINING ONLY TO THE COUNTIES WHERE WE COMPILE PERMITS):
1) SUPPLY: THE OBVIOUS QUESTION IS "HAVE WE HIT BOTTOM YET?" IF THE POSITIVE TRENDS CONTINUE, THEN BUILDING PERMITS OFFICIALLY BOTTOMED OUT IN Q1-2009. THERE HAS BEEN A STEADY AND CONSISTENT INCREASE IN THE NUMBER OF BUILDING PERMITS (HOUSING SUPPLY) ISSUED SINCE THEN.
2) DEMAND: WE ARE PLEASED TO REPORT A STRONG IMPROVEMENT IN THE "E/P" RATIO FOR ALL COUNTIES WHERE WE PRODUCE AN IN DEPTH TREND REPORT. THE E/P (EMPLOYMENT / PERMIT) RATIO IS A GENERAL INDICATION OF HOUSING DEMAND. A RATIO OF 3/1 IS CONSIDERED A STRONG HOUSING MARKET. (3 NEW JOBS FOR EACH BUILDING PERMIT ISSUED). SOME COUNTIES REPORTED AN E/P RATIO OF 6 IN THE PEAK OF THE HOUSING FRENZY IN 2006. CONVERSELY, SOME COUNTIES HAVE BEEN AS LOW AS "-8" IN RECENT QUARTERS, WHICH IS TERRIBLE. THE INTERESTING NEWS IS THE E/P RATIO BOTTOMED OUT IN OCTOBER OF 2009 AND HAS SHOWN A DRAMATIC IMPROVEMENT FOR 3 CONSECUTIVE QUARTERS. BY DRAMATIC, I MEAN THE E/P RATIO IMPROVED FROM "NEGATIVE" TO "0". SO HOW LONG DOES IT TAKE TO FEEL THIS? THAT IS THE MILLION DOLLAR QUESTION. IF THE TREND CONTINUES, MOST MARKETS WILL HAVE A POSITIVE E/P RATIO BY THE END OF 2010. BUT, HISTORICAL MODELS THAT HAVE TRACKED THIS RATIO FOR THE LAST 30 YEARS, PREDICT IT TAKES 18 MONTHS AFTER THE "BOTTOM" FOR ACTUAL "SALES" TOTALS TO IMPROVE. BASED ON THIS MODEL, WE SHOULD BEGIN TO HAVE "SUSTAINABLE" SALES INCREASES IN APRIL OF 2011 (OCT 2009 + 18 MONTHS = APRIL 2011). LIKE EVERYONE ELSE THAT MAKES A LIVING IN THE HOUSING INDUSTRY, I CERTAINLY HOPE DEMAND IMPROVES BEFORE THEN.
INTERESTED IN BUILDING PERMIT TRENDS?
TO PREVIEW OR DOWNLOAD THE 06/30/10 EDITION OF OUR FREE "REGIONAL BUILDING PERMIT TREND REPORT", SIMPLY:
1) CLICK this link: www.themarketedge.com/Markets.as px (CUT AND PASTE THE LINK INTO YOUR BROWSER IF NEEDED)
2) CLICK THE "ICON" THAT LOOKS LIKE A MINI VERSION OF THE TREND REPORT.
IF YOU ARE RECEIVING THIS REPORT FOR THE FIRST TIME: The Regional Building Permit Trend Report is simply a map of the counties where we compile building permit data plus the corresponding residential building permit totals for each of those counties. This report is produced each calendar quarter and e-mailed FREE OF CHARGE to our customers, prospects, associates, various homebuilders, homebuilder associations and their members, code enforcement officers, planning agencies, and governmental officials.
FEEL FREE TO FORWARD TO THIS REPORT TO YOUR ASSOCIATES THAT HAVE AN INTEREST IN BUILDING PERMIT DATA.
If we can be of further assistance to you in any way, please feel free to call or correspond.
Dale Akins
President
The Market Edge, Inc.
10433 Hickory Path Way
Knoxville, TN 37922
800-357-3343 / Ext 226
dakins@themarketedge.com< /a>
www.themarketedge.com
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